PICTURE:  Anora (rooting for the unlikey Brutalist hard! And would be happier with Conclave over Anora)

DIRECTOR:  Sean Baker, Anora (not as much my jam, but ok... A- movie)

ACTOR:  Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (and STOKED for this eventuality)

ACTRESS:  Demi Moore, The Substance (by a HAIR over Mikey & Fernanda; most wish for Fernanda)

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (I'd pick Jeremy Strong, but ok)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:  Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pèrez (rooting for Felicity, who has no shot!; Zoe was great too)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:  A Real Pain (but Anora is the front-runner, and that's probably who'll win...)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:  Conclave (dreaming of Sing Sing, but Conclave has it, which is groovy too!)

ANIMATED FEATURE:  The Wild Robot (for sure)

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:  I'm Still Here (can the 3-time nominee best the 13-time nominated Emilia?! I think so!)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:  Porcelain War (No Other Land has more buzz, but I think more have seen Porcelain!)

CINEMATOGRAPHY:  The Brutalist (if it doesn't win, I will throw things)

FILM EDITING:  Conclave (I think?!)

SOUND:  Dune: Part Two (but like, honestly who knows?!)

VISUAL EFFECTS:  Dune: Part Two (feels like a slam-dunk)

PRODUCTION DESIGN:  Wicked (this is where you Wicked die-hards will be happy)

COSTUME DESIGN:  Wicked (and here too...)

MAKEUP AND HAIR:  The Substance (gotta be)

SCORE:  The Brutalist (if it doesn't win, I will throw things)

SONG:  "El Mal" from Emilia Pèrez (but maybe, especially post-scandal, Emilia will vote-split, and Diane Warren finally wins her Oscar?!?!)

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And I'll take a stab at the shorts!  (I've seen the animated ones only, though... and missed one of them...)

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ANIMATED SHORT:  Wander to Wonder (to me, it was by far the best; so I'm going with it!)

LIVE ACTION SHORT:  I Am Ready, Warden (honestly, I have no idea, so am just going with the Gold Derby odds)

DOCUMENTARY SHORT:  The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (same as above, just going with odds)​